人为火发生预报方法及原理  

METHOD AND PRINCIPLES OF FORECASTING MAN-CAUSED FOREST FIRE

作　　者：李世达[1] 郑焕能[1] 常健斌 刘庆照[1] 居恩德[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学

出　　处：《东北林业大学学报》1989年第5期10-19,共10页Journal of Northeast Forestry University

摘　　要：本文以研究预报某日某林业局能否发生人为火为目的。用大兴安岭地区1975—1984年计10年间的资料建立的线性判别函数和判别准则,就回报效果而言,着火判对率为79.1％,不着火判对率为83.2％。就预报效果而言,预报1985年某日某林业局能否发生人为火,着火判对率为87.0％,不着火判对率为80.1％;预报1986年,着火判对率为80.1％,不着火判对率为68.7％。采用逐年修正判别函数和判据的方法,可提高判对率。The purpose is to forecast whether a man-caused fire occures in a forestry bureau on some day. A linear discriminant function and discriminant criterions were developed using data collected from Daxing′-anling region from 1975 to 1984 (10 years). For the forecast backwords of 1984 and forecast forward of 1985 and 1986, the ratio of correct discriminating that a fire will occure in a day is 79.1％, 87.0％, and 80.1％, respectively and ratio of correct discriminating that a fire will not occure in a day is 83.2％, 80.1％ and 68.7％ respectively. The precision can be improved by corrected the discriminant function and criterion annually.

关 键 词：人为火 预报 森林 线性 判别函数 

分 类 号：S762.2[农业科学—森林保护学]