不同发电技术电源投资决策支持模型  

Study on decision model of power generation investment based on multi-power generation technology

作　　者：梁志宏 杨昆[2] 孙耀唯[2] 

机构地区：[1]国网新源控股有限公司,北京100005 [2]国家电力监管委员会,北京100031

出　　处：《华北电力大学学报（自然科学版）》2007年第4期17-21,37,共6页Journal of North China Electric Power University：Natural Science Edition

摘　　要：首先综合运用净现值(NPV)标准工具与投资理论,提出不同发电技术电源投资项目决策支持模型,科学、系统地比较分析了不同类型电源的经济性与技术性指标对投资收益率影响。为进一步展示模型的适用性,选择三种典型的发电技术投资决策案例:一方面,针对500 MW的CCGT投资项目进行动态模拟,来实证研究投资不同发电技术时,预测上网电价、燃料价格、机组热耗、年平均可利用系数对投资项目内部收益率的影响;另一方面,针对这三种发电技术的技术与经济特点,利用提出的模型对比分析了它们的相对竞争潜力。其次,鉴于我国即将全面推行电力市场,考虑市场的不确定性,又提出了基于期权理论的等待型投资模型,并选择相同的案例对比研究在未来市场不确定性条件下的投资决策过程。Firstly the paper presented decision model of power generation investment based on multi-power generation technology with tool of Net Present Value （NPV） and investment theory. Technical and economic indexes for different types of power generation had different influences on the rate of investment return. Those influences were analyzed systematically. Furthermore three typical generation technologies were selected to show the model＇ s applicability, On one hand, the paper provided a case of 500MW CCGT of generation project to illustrate the technical and economic indexes effect on Internal Rate of Return （IRR）. Those indexes included forecasting on-gird price, fuel price, heat rate and annual available hours. On the other hand, the paper analyzed the competitive power of the three different power generation technologies by the model presented. Moreover, China began to promote restructuring of the electric power sector ; considering structure risk eharacteristies of China power market, the paper provided a case of investment new power generation capacity to illustrate how to make decision in proper time under uncertainty.

关 键 词：电源投资 不同发电技术 技术与经济指标 竞争潜力 不确定性 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济] TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]