Application of apparent stress in earthquake prediction  

作　　者：刘红桂 王培玲 杨彩霞 徐戈 孙业军 陈章立 郑斯华 

机构地区：[1]Institute of Geophysics,China Earthquake Administration [2]Earthquake Administration of Qinghai Province [3]Earthquake Administration of Jiangsu Province [4]Institute of Earthquake Science,China Earthquake Administration

出　　处：《Acta Seismologica Sinica(English Edition)》2007年第4期467-476,共10页

基　　金：Project of National Natural Science Foundation (40574016);Joint Seismological Science Foundation of China (104047);Science and Technological Planning Item of Social Development of Jiangsu Province (BS2005069)

摘　　要：On the basis of the assumption that ω^2 model accords with source displacement spectra of moderate-small shocks, we calculate the apparent stress values of 1 020 moderate-small shocks recorded by the Digital Seismic Network of Yunnan Province by using the low-frequency fiat level and corner frequencies. The results show that the apparent stress is of good significance in earthquake prediction. The moderate-small shock with apparent stress larger than 0.9 MPa can be used as a referential index to predict moderate-strong earthquakes in Yunnan area. And its relevant predictability evaluation （R value） has a high confidence level.On the basis of the assumption that ω^2 model accords with source displacement spectra of moderate-small shocks, we calculate the apparent stress values of 1 020 moderate-small shocks recorded by the Digital Seismic Network of Yunnan Province by using the low-frequency fiat level and corner frequencies. The results show that the apparent stress is of good significance in earthquake prediction. The moderate-small shock with apparent stress larger than 0.9 MPa can be used as a referential index to predict moderate-strong earthquakes in Yunnan area. And its relevant predictability evaluation （R value） has a high confidence level.

关 键 词：apparent stress predictability evaluation ω^2 model confidence level 

分 类 号：P315.75[天文地球—地震学]