西南喀斯特区域农业生态系统承载力系统动力学仿真模型  

Simulation and Predication of Resource Carrying Capacity and Carrying Pressure of Ecosystem System in Karst Region of Southwestern China

作　　者：许联芳[1] 杨勋林[2] 王克林[1] 李晓青[3] 陈志辉[1] 侯娅[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院亚热带农业生态研究所 [2]兰州大学资源与环境科学学院,甘肃兰州730000 [3]湖南师范大学资源与环境科学学院,湖南长沙410081

出　　处：《农业系统科学与综合研究》2007年第3期312-319,323,共9页System Sciemces and Comprehensive Studies In Agriculture

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(2006CB403208);中国科学院知识创新工程领域前沿项目(01200220055413);桂科软(0033020)

摘　　要：应用地理信息系统（GIS）技术和系统动力学（SD）模型,依据遥感（RS）和野外调查的数据,模拟预测广西河池市在保持现行政策不变,人口、资金和技术投入等按现行速度持续增长的条件下,在2000-2010年期间,居民消费水平按4种不同方案增长的情况下,生态系统的资源承载能力以及承载压力的动态变化趋势。预测结果显示,只有当居民生活标准保持现有的温饱消费水平,资源承载能力才是增大的,承载压力也是逐渐趋缓的;居民生活消费若按宽裕型增长,资源承载能力虽然有所增加,但是资源承载压力也增大;居民生活消费水平若按小康型和富裕型增长,资源承载能力减少而资源承载压力却是逐渐增大的;在预测期间内,耕地资源减少的比较快,粮食供应依然十分紧张,区域之间的差异没有多大改观,局部地区资源承载压力过大,生态系统依然处于超载状态。图4,表5,参13。Applying the geographical information system （GIS） techniques to the system dynamics model （SD）, according to the data obtained by remote sensing （RS） and field investigation, this paper takes karst region as its research object in Hechi City. Under the conditions of maintaining current policy and current growth rate of population, capital and techniques, this paper makes use of the SD model to simulate and predict trend of resource carrying capacity and carrying pressure of ecosystem in the karst region in Hechi City for the years from 2000 to 2010 based on four different growth scenarios of life consumption. The prediction results indicate that： The trend of resource carrying capacity and resource pressure can develop healthily only when residential consumption keeps the present level with adequate food and fibre supply ; Resource carrying capacity increases but resource pressure becomes larger if the residential consumption level grows at the rate of primary well-todo kind; Resource carrying capacity decreases and resource pressure becomes higher if the residential consumption level grows at the rate of comparatively well-off and wealthy kinds. The farmland resources reduce more quickly and the.feod supply is still very much in short; differences among the regions change little and in some regions resource carrying pressure is larger than what the ecosystem can support. The whole ecosystem is over loaded in Hechi City.

关 键 词：资源承载力 资源承载压力 GIS SD 喀斯特地区 

分 类 号：S181[农业科学—农业基础科学]