区域土地利用变化驱动力研究前景展望  

The Drivers of Land Use Change at Regional Scale:Assessment and Prospects

作　　者：邵景安[1] 李阳兵[2] 魏朝富[1] 谢德体[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南大学资源环境学院 [2]贵州师范大学地理与生物科学学院,贵州贵阳550001

出　　处：《地球科学进展》2007年第8期798-809,共12页Advances in Earth Science

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划"耕地地力提升与退化耕地修复关键技术研究"专题"紫色土耕地地力提升与退化耕地修复关键技术研究"(编号:2006BAD05B01-02);教育部"新世纪优秀人才支持计划"项目"岩溶生态系统多样性与生态服务功能研究"(编号:NCET-05-0819)资助

摘　　要：区域土地利用变化驱动力研究旨在从典型区域角度揭示土地利用变化背后的真正动因及其作用机理,进而动态模拟、预测区域土地利用变化过程。土地利用系统的自组织性及其内驱动因子作用的复杂性,决定了其研究必须与某一特定区域相联系,以便确定合适的可定量指标来体现外生驱动因子的驱动效果。系统地识别土地利用系统在不同控制状态下的驱动因子及其多种时空尺度效应,建立具有综合模拟的区域土地利用变化动态模型,能减少土地利用系统通常受临界值域和突变所左右的局面。区域土地利用变化驱动因子识别、区域土地利用变化驱动机制分析、区域土地利用变化驱动过程模拟等的研究现状表明,为更好地理解区域土地利用变化的机制和原因,测度现有及未来土地利用变化的速率、过程和地点,支持政府相关决策的制定与实施,促使区域土地利用变化向有利于人类的方向发展,区域土地利用变化驱动力分析应优先考虑以下研究领域:①驱动力因子识别及其作用效应的尺度依赖性;②驱动力因子的贡献量化及其在具体区域的非均一分布;③驱动力因子作用过程的自然反馈机制模型化。This paper reviews the research on the drivers of regional land use change. The study of regional land use change drivers is to reveal the real motivation behind the land use change and its interacting mechanism in the aspect of the typical region, so as to simulate and predict the process of land use change. Presently, studiesrooting from different natural and socioeconomic backgrounds, and from different scales, have deepened the under- standing and cognition of regional land use change driving forces. In order to confirm the fit quantifiable index to embody the driving effect of outer driving factor, the study in the future need to be related with a special region determined by the self-organization of land use system and the complexity of its inner driving forces function. To comprehensively identify the driving factor of land use system under the control of different states and its multiple spatial-temporal scales domino effect, and to establish the regional land use change dynamic models of comprehensive simulation, will reduce the situation of land use system impacted by critical threshold and break. Providing a scien- tific understanding of the causes and process of regional land use change, the measurements of how, why and where of current or future changes in regional land use, the impacts of different land use decisions, and the ways that decisions are affected by a changing environment and increasing ecological variability are priority areas for research： （1） identification of divers of regional land use change and scale dependency of their effects; （2） contribution quantification of drivers of regional land use change and their non-uniform distributions in specific region ; and （ 3 ） incorporation of biophysical feedbacks in land use change models. These issues are very basic. The incorporation of dynamic feedbacks between changing regional land use and changing environmental conditions and vice versa, therefore needs to focus on solving these problems. These findings will be useful to

关 键 词：土地利用变化 区域尺度 驱动力 驱动机制 过程模拟 

分 类 号：F311[经济管理—产业经济]