泸定县耕地保有量预测及其对策研究  

Prediction of Stock of Cultivated Land in Luding County and Countermeasures of Its Protection and Use

作　　者：李喆[1] 吴柏清[1] 何政伟[1] 杨斌[1] 仇文侠[1] 张怡[1] 姜兰[1] 钟明[1] 白潇[1] 

机构地区：[1]成都理工大学地球科学学院,四川成都610059

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2007年第22期6698-6700,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

摘　　要：基于泸定县耕地利用与社会经济发展态势,采用多项式拟合和多元逐步回归法构建了泸定县耕地需求影响分析数学模型,据此预测到2020年泸定县耕地保有量至少为5 339.75 hm2,提出了泸定县耕地资源保护与利用的对策与建议,以期在保持耕地总量动态平衡的前提下实现泸定县的经济、社会可持续发展。Based on the use of cultivated land and the development of social economy in Luding County, the multinomial fitting and stepwise method was used to construct the mathematical model of influence analysis about cultivated land in Luding County. According to the results and related analysis, the stock of cultivated land in finding County would he 5 339.75 hm^2 at least in 2020, then some countermeasures and suggestions about protection and use of cultivated land in Luding County were proposed to keep the dynamic balance of cultivated land and realize sustainable development of society and economy in Luding County.

关 键 词：泸定县 耕地保有量预测 数学模型 对策与建议 

分 类 号：S126[农业科学—农业基础科学]