一种预测化学品市场走势的简单数学模型介绍——连续三月商品量之和同期对比预测方法(连载一)  

作　　者：佘文武[1] 

机构地区：[1]普华咨询

出　　处：《环球聚氨酯》2007年第8期98-100,共3页Polyurethane Monthly

摘　　要：本文先分析了对于市场驱动力因素,然后分别建立了动态和静态的预测模型。其中动态模型由于不具有较高的可操作性而被否定,静态模型被证实具有较高的准确性,该模型粗略理论预测精度在[2/3,5/6)之间。Market drivers are firstly analyzed in this paper. Then two simplified mathematical models are respectively proposed, which one is dynamic and the other is static. The dynamic model is denied due to low practicality, but the static model is proven to be highly accurate. And the theoretical forecast accuracy of static model is roughly estimated between 2/3 and 5/6.

关 键 词：市场驱动力 供需 静态模型 动态模型 

分 类 号：O211.67[理学—概率论与数理统计]