流动性过剩：现状分析与政策建议  

Excess Liquidity:Current Situation and Policy Recommendations

作　　者：张雪春[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行研究局,北京100800

出　　处：《金融研究》2007年第08A期1-14,共14页Journal of Financial Research

摘　　要：我国宏观经济层面的流动性过剩是内外部因素共同作用的结果,将会在相当长时期内成为宏观经济的常态。近期,我国仍需要继续央行的对冲操作,维持稳定的宏观经济环境。为解决流动性过剩问题,现阶段应缓解央行的对冲压力,降低外部对人民币升值的预期。为此,可以考虑财政隐性赤字历史欠账的显性化问题,辅之以贸易和相关政策的调整,使产品价格反映生产要素和环境的成本。当前,一个较可行的有效政策措施是,适量增发国债,置换央行再贷款中的政策性贷款。中长期对策应着眼于制度创新。The macro-level excess liquidity will be a lasting phenomenon in China. In short-run, the People＇ s Bank of China still needs sterilization to maintain a stable c environment. To resolve the issue of excess liquidity, the key is to reduce pressure for sterilization and the expectation for currency appreciation. For this, we can consider disclosing of implicit fiscal deficit. This, combined with adjustment in trade and related policies, will enable product price to reflect costs of factors and environment. At the time, a feasible policy measure would be a minor increase in government security issuance, to swap policy lending of the central bank. In the medium- to long-run, the focus shall be institutional innovation.

关 键 词：流动性过剩 对冲 货币政策 宏观经济管理 

分 类 号：F822[经济管理—财政学]