基于D-S证据理论的多水库联合调度方案评价  

Application of multi-reservoir flood control systems based on evidence theory

作　　者：丁勇[1] 梁昌勇[1] 方必和[1] 

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学管理学院,安徽合肥230009

出　　处：《水科学进展》2007年第4期591-597,共7页Advances in Water Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70171033);教育部重点资助项目(99067)~~

摘　　要：多水库防洪调度是一个典型的具有不确定性的多目标决策问题,在调度决策过程中,往往含有大量不确定性因素。提出了利用D-S证据推理方法,对多水库联合防洪调度方案进行评价。通过对不确定性评价信息进行融合,将问题转化为确定性决策问题。给出了证据合成的算法步骤,通过算例分析说明该方法的有效性和实用性。The multi-reservoir flood control is typical multi-object decision making problem with the uncertainty. There are many uncertain factors in the course of the flood control. D-S An evidential reasoning approach is proposed to evaluate the pro- ject of multi-reservoir ilood control. By using this method to combine the uncertain evaluation information, the problem is con- verted into a certain decision making problem. The arithmetic step for evidence reasoning is presented. Finally, example shows that this method is efficient and practical.

关 键 词：多水库调度 证据理论 MASS函数 评价 

分 类 号：TV877[水利工程—水利水电工程]