基于不确定性分析的城市总体规划环评方法与案例研究  

Integrating uncertainty analysis into strategic environmental assessment of urban master plan: a methodology and case study

作　　者：刘毅[1] 陈吉宁[1] 何炜琪[1] 曾思育[1] 吴洪斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学环境科学与工程系,北京100084

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2007年第4期566-571,共6页China Environmental Science

基　　金：清华大学基础研究基金(JC2007007)

摘　　要：围绕城市总体规划特点,在分析识别规划经济增长和用地布局方案中存在的多种不确定性的基础上,以产业和用地为基本评估单元,综合运用蒙特卡罗随机采样技术和HSY算法及地理信息系统,建立了基于结构与空间不确定性分析的规划环评方法和系统评估模型.以大连城市发展规划对近岸海域的环境影响为例,说明该方法的具体运用.案例研究结果表明,规划年大连市入海污染物排放特征和环境敏感行业表现出较大的空间差异性,局部地区污染物排放量超出环境控制目标值的概率较大.An integrated methodology aiming to appropriately depict and evaluate the underlying uncertainties of the designed schemes of economic growth and land use in an urban master plan （UMP） and the environmental impacts it caused was established. Combing a Monte Carlo sampling technique and HSY algorithm, the methodology introduced an uncertainty analysis approach into strategic environmental assessment （SEA）. A GIS-based model was subsequently constructed, which enabled that all tentative stochastic samples regarding various possibilities of industrial development and land use pattern and the induced environmental impacts can be examined in a systematical way. The methodology was applied to a case study on assessing inshore environmental impacts by the UMP of Dalian Municipality, Northeast China. The pollution emission and the identified environmental sensitive industries significantly varied spatially. The probability that the discharged amount of pollutants exceeds environmental goal may become large in some certain areas.

关 键 词：规划环评 产业结构 土地利用 蒙特卡罗采样 HSY算法 

分 类 号：X32[环境科学与工程—环境工程]