改进的PERT项目工期估算方法  

An Estimating Method for Aviation Project's Duration Based on Improved-PERT

作　　者：李阳[1] 于海山[2] 沈琴[2] 张守忠[2] 

机构地区：[1]西北工业大学网络与教育技术中心,陕西西安710072 [2]西北工业大学现代设计与集成制造技术教育部重点实验室,陕西西安710072

出　　处：《工业工程与管理》2007年第4期38-42,共5页Industrial Engineering and Management

基　　金：国家高技术研究发展计划863CIMS资助项目(2005AA411040)

摘　　要：为提高航空项目工期估算的准确度,提出了基于改进的PERT的工期估算方法。针对经典PERT方法的不足,用莫尔法来确定重要活动的概率分布,用当量概率法对项目工期进行修正,进而减小经典PERT估算项目工期偏小的可能性。最后,结合某型飞机04段装配子项目为例介绍应用该方法进行工期估算的一般步骤。According to the authors＇ opinion, the traditional PERT needs to be improved because of its weakness. In order to increase the veracity of estimation of aeronautic project＇s duration, an estimation method based on improved-PERT is suggesed. The Monroe method and the equivalent-weight probability method are used to improve the traditional PERT, so as to amend the duration which is calculated by traditional PERT. The improved method is applied to estimate the project＇s duration of 04-segment assembly of a certain aviation project. Comparing with traditional PERT, the improved method can reduce the probability of project＇s duration lessening, and this just illustrates the effectiveness of the improved method.

关 键 词：工期估算 计划评审技术 莫尔法 当量概率法 

分 类 号：TP391[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]