气候变异对内蒙古武川县麦类作物产量的影响  

Impact of Climate Variation on the Yield of Crop in Wuchuan County of Inner Mongol AGRO-PASTORAL

作　　者：潘学标[1] 苟诗薇[2] 魏玉蓉[1] 龙步菊[2] 

机构地区：[1]内蒙古气象局生态与农业气象中心,呼和浩特010051 [2]中国农业大学,北京100094

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2007年第8期526-531,共6页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：中国气象局气候变化专项"气候变化对北方农牧交错带生态系统的影响"(CCSF2006-40);国家自然科学基金项目"气候变化对北方农牧交错带生物多样性的影响与适应机制"(40575056);十一五支撑计划项目课题"半干旱偏旱农牧交错带聚水保土关键技术集成与示范"(2006BAD29B09)。

摘　　要：【研究目的】内蒙古武川县位于阴山北麓农牧交错带温凉旱区,是春小麦、莜麦等喜凉作物的适宜产地,但由于气候的年际波动,产量低而不稳。通过分析产量与气候的关系,可采取措施减轻潜在的气候风险。【方法】笔者根据产量统计资料、生育期观测资料和历年气象数据,用相关分析法分析各时期平均温度、日照时数、降水量三个气候因子对春小麦、莜麦产量的影响,建立多因子产量评估模式。【结果】结果表明,武川小麦和莜麦的丰歉与生长季各月的平均气温及其总和呈负相关,与生长季各月降水量及生长季降水之和呈正相关,与日照时数关系不显著。通过找出影响产量丰歉的气象指标因子进行多元回归分析,得出产量的评价模型,可用于武川县麦类作物产量丰歉年评估。【结论】研究认为,气候暖干化将增加武川麦类作物生产的气候风险。[ OBJECTIVE ]Wuchuan County of Inner Mongol lies in north of Yinshan Mountain, where is warm-cool droughty zone and agro-pastoral ecotone, and which is fit production region of spring wheat and naked oats. Because of annual variation of climate, the crop yield is low and unstable. The practices may be taken to mitigate disasters and climate risks by analysis between climate and yield. [ METHOD ]Depending on the previous work, such as yield data, growth season observation, and meteorologic data, the correlation between yields and the average temperature, total hours of sunshine, and total precipitation monthly was analyzed and the pattern including multi-factors was developed to assess crop yields. [ RESULTS ]The result showed that the yields of spring wheat and naked oats were negatively related to the monthly average temperature and the sum of them; the yield was positively related to the monthly precipitation and their sum.; and the yield didn＇t have distinct relation to the monthly sunshine hours. Then a prediction model was made for the crop yields through multi factors analysis of regression, and which could be used assess the crop yield of Wuchuan. [ CONCLUSION ]All the works showed that the climatic risk for wheat and naked oats yield would increase as climate become warmer and more drought at Wuchuan.

关 键 词：农牧交错带 气候变异 小麦产量 莜麦产量 武川县 

分 类 号：S162.53[农业科学—农业气象学]