不同对流参数化方案在登陆浙闽台风降水预报中的比较试验  

The Comparisons of Different Convective Parameterization Schemes Applying Precipitation's Forecast of Typhoon Landing on Zhejiang and Fujian Provinces

作　　者：薛根元[1] 张建海 陈红梅 诸晓明 

机构地区：[1]浙江省气象局,浙江杭州310002 [2]浙江省绍兴市气象局,浙江绍兴312000

出　　处：《高原气象》2007年第4期765-773,共9页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：浙江省气象局重点科技项目(Z2005001)资助

摘　　要：利用MM5模式,在MRF和Blackadar两种边界层参数化方案下,分别选用KF2、Grell和BM三种对流参数化方案对登陆浙闽两省的6个台风暴雨过程进行数值模拟,模拟结果的对比分析及其与观测资料的比较表明:KF2方案和Grell方案在降水量较小时误差较小,BM方案在降水量较大时误差较小;对大雨以上量级的降水预报,KF2方案、Grell方案和Blackadar方案组合效果较好,而BM方案则适宜与MRF方案组合;KF2方案不适合时效较长的降水预报。在台风"卡努"的个例试验中,位涡分布特征在积分后期对不同参数化方案十分敏感,这种差异进而影响了降水预报的准确性,同时暴雨中心潜热加热的时间演变总体特征表现为暴雨中心凝结潜热加热随时间积分有明显变化。因此,在预报和模拟中应根据预报和研究对象的特点来选择对流参数化方案。The simulation and comparison experiments use the scheme MRF and Blackadar, which is combined with the scheme KF2, Grell and BM, respectively, to simulate the processes of six typhoons landing on Zhejiang and Fujian Provinces using the model MMS. In simulation experiments, MRF and Blackadar schemes are equipped with boundary layer＇s parameterization, while KF2, Grell and BM schemes are undergone with convective parameterization. The analyses of the comparison experiments between the simulation and the observation show that KF2 and Grell schemes lead less error when there is less rain, while the schemes have better accuracy when there is more rain, and the combination of KF2, Grell and Blackadar schemes behave well when there is heavy rain or more. The scheme BM does well with MRF, but KF2 is not suitable for the longer time rain forecast. Taking example of the typhoon Kahnun＇s simulation, the distribution character of potential vorticity has different basing on different parameterization schemes in the later phase of intergration, which has effect on the accuracy of forecast, and at the same time, the time evolution characteristics of latent heating in the rainstorm center show obvious change of its time integral. Therefore, the scheme should be selected basing on the different characters in the process of forecast and simulation.

关 键 词：MM5模式 台风暴雨 积云对流参数化方案 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]