我国股市泡沫状态分析  

Analysis of the Bubble Situation in Chinese Stock Market

作　　者：何诚颖 

机构地区：[1]国信证券有限公司,广东深圳518001

出　　处：《开放导报》2007年第4期24-29,共6页China Opening Journal

摘　　要：正确分析当前中国股市的估值水平及泡沫程度,对促进我国股市的健康平稳发展具有重大的现实意义。本文通过对海外市盈率的比较分析,认为我国目前股市市盈率还处于安全区域,静态市盈率短期还会上涨。市场现在的确存在泡沫,但是结构性泡沫,从结构性泡沫到出现全面泡沫,市场可能还有相当一段距离,A股市场第三季度将走向调整。中国股市在未来一段时期内,仍将会以比较高的速率上涨。The correct analysis of China＇s current stock market valuation levels and the bubble is of great realistic significance for China to promote the healthy and stable development of its stock market. Based on overseas comparative analysis of the price-earnings ratio, the current stock market price- earnings ratio in China is still in the safe zone, Static market price-earnings will increase in short-term. Market bubble does exist now, but it is structural foam. The market may still have quite some distance from structural foam into a full bubble. The A-share market will move toward the third quarter adjustment. China＇s stock market in the next period of time, will continue to be relatively high rate rise.

关 键 词：结构性泡沫 市盈率 人民币升值 

分 类 号：F832.51[经济管理—金融学]