A path analysis of the cultivated land change in Hubei Province,China  

作　　者：Li Chunhua Li Ning Shi Peijun 

机构地区：[1]Academy of Disaster Reduction and Emergency Management,Ministry of Civil Affairs ＆ Ministry of Education of the People＇s Ripublic of China,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875.P.R.China [2]College of Resource Science and Technology,Beijing Normal University.Beijing 100875,P.R.China

出　　处：《Ecological Economy》2007年第3期243-248,共6页生态经济（英文版）

基　　金：This paper is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China （Grant No. 40541001 ）;Major Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China （Grant No. 40535024）;Beijing Municipal Natural Science Foundation （Grant No. 8062020）.

摘　　要：Hubei Province is one of the critical grain production regions in China with the quantitative cultivated landand good natural condition; it plays an important role in grain security in China. However, owing to rapid economicgrowth, population pressures, anthropogenic activities, and natural disasters, the quality of the cultivated land hassignificantly decreased in recent years and environmental resources are under increasing stress. In order to research onthe mechanism of the change of the cultivated land, this paper analyzes qualitatively the influencing factors of thecultivated land change in Hubei Province from 1978 to 2004, and distinguishes the direct factors from indirect influentones by means of the approach of the path analysis. The result shows that the area of the rent land in the total non-agricultural land, the total population growth and the fixed asset investment are the main factors deciding the change ofthe cultivated land. Meanwhile, the density of the transportation network, the proportion of per capita income of ruralcitizens to that of urban citizens, non-agricultural gross domestic production’s share of the total GDP has a less directeffect but a more indirect influence on the decrease of the cultivated land in Hubei Province. The result means that whilesome factors have less direct influence on the change of the cultivated land, its indirect influence are significant, viceversa. Thus it’s necessary to adopt a comprehensive measurement to protect the cultivated land.Hubei Province is one of the critical grain production regions in China with the quantitative cultivated landand good natural condition; it plays an important role in grain security in China. However, owing to rapid economicgrowth, population pressures, anthropogenic activities, and natural disasters, the quality of the cultivated land hassignificantly decreased in recent years and environmental resources are under increasing stress. In order to research onthe mechanism of the change of the cultivated land, this paper analyzes qualitatively the influencing factors of thecultivated land change in Hubei Province from 1978 to 2004, and distinguishes the direct factors from indirect influentones by means of the approach of the path analysis. The result shows that the area of the rent land in the total non-agricultural land, the total population growth and the fixed asset investment are the main factors deciding the change ofthe cultivated land. Meanwhile, the density of the transportation network, the proportion of per capita income of ruralcitizens to that of urban citizens, non-agricultural gross domestic production’s share of the total GDP has a less directeffect but a more indirect influence on the decrease of the cultivated land in Hubei Province. The result means that whilesome factors have less direct influence on the change of the cultivated land, its indirect influence are significant, viceversa. Thus it’s necessary to adopt a comprehensive measurement to protect the cultivated land.

关 键 词：Cultivated land change Correlation analysis Path analysis Hubei Province 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学] F301.11