管理选择及对海洋生态系统的影响:评估波罗的海的未来  

Management Options and Effects on a Marine Ecosystem:Assessing the Future of the Baltic

作　　者：Fredrik Wulff Oleg P.Savchuk Alexander Sokolov Christoph Humborg Carl-Magnus Mrth 张冬奇 

机构地区：[1]斯德哥尔摩大学系统生态系 [2]斯德哥尔摩大学系统生态学系 [3]斯德哥尔摩大学生物地球化学系 [4]斯德哥尔摩大学地质与地球化学系环境地球化学系

出　　处：《AMBIO－人类环境杂志》2007年第2期230-236,共7页

摘　　要：我们使用Nest决策支持系统中的耦合模型,评估海洋生态系统对通过各种管理选择引起的外来负荷变化的反应。模型涉及所有7个主要海盆和波罗的海的整个流域。在与赫尔辛基委员会的密切合作下,开发了一系列的未来情景,来了解改善废水处理和粪肥处理、无磷洗涤剂和较低强度的土地利用和家畜的可能作用。废水处理的改善和无磷洗涤剂在整个区域的使用,将明显地减少磷的负荷,并改善海洋环境,尤其是蓝藻细菌藻华的发生。但是,波罗的海仍是富营养的,而为了减少其它影响,必须实行大量减少氮的排放。在这些情景下只能通过强烈地改变土地利用方式来实现这一点。在最后的情景中,我们把所有农田的50%变成草地,实行高效率的废水处理和在洗涤剂中禁用磷。这将会大大地减少初级生产量和缺氧底层的扩大,增加富营养化最严重的海盆水的透明度,以及从根本上消灭蓝藻细菌藻华的大规模泛滥。We are using the coupled models in a decision support system,Nest,to evaluate the response of the marine ecosystem to changes in external loads through various management options.The models address all the seven major marine basins and the entire drainage basin of the Baltic Sea.A series of future scenarios have been developed,in close collaboration with the Helsinki Commission,to see the possible effects of improved wastewater treatment and manure handling,phosphorus-free detergents,and less intensive land use and live stocks.Improved wastewater treatment and the use of phosphorus-free detergents in the entire region would drastically decrease phosphorus loads and improve the marine environment, particularly the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms.However,the Baltic Sea will remain eutrophic,and to reduce other effects,a substantial reduction of nitrogen emissions must be implemented.This can only be obtained in these scenarios by drastically changing land use.In a final scenario,we have turned 50% of all agricultural lands into grasslands,together with efficient wastewater treatments and a ban of phosphorus in detergents.This scenario will substantially reduce primary production and the extension of hypoxic bottoms,increase water transparency in the most eutrophied basins, and virtually eliminate extensive cyanobacterial blooms.

关 键 词：海洋生态系统 波罗的海 评估 管理 无磷洗涤剂 土地利用方式 废水处理 决策支持系统 

分 类 号：X703[环境科学与工程—环境工程]