基于自组织临界现象的中期地震预报算法研究  

THE STUDY OF ALGORITHM FOR INTERMEDIATE TERM EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION BASED ON THE SELF ORGANIZED CRITICAL PHENOMENON

作　　者：兰从欣[1] 郭大庆[1] 石特临[2] 

机构地区：[1]国家地震局分析预报中心 [2]国家地震局兰州地震研究所

出　　处：《西北地震学报》1997年第1期5-14,共10页Northwestern Seismological Journal

摘　　要：在自组织临界现象、几何相变等物理理论的基础上，开发研究了基于自组织临界现象的中期地震预报算法。提出并定义了自组织临界行为的结构强度，简称ＣＳＩ值。ＣＳＩ值是反映地震活动的一个综合指标，其变化较好地反映了地震活动演化进程。对多个震例的研究表明，大地震发生前结构强度ＣＳＩ值存在一个增大的过程，这和理论结果基本一致。In this paper,an algorithm for intermediate term earthquake prediction is made according to percolation theory and the phenomenon of self organized criticality.The self organized critical structure intensity (CSI) is defined.The form is as follow: CSI=Nem·Rg·FsWhere order parameter Nem indicates the seismic activity level,correlation length Rg the space distribution of earthquakes,structure parameter Fs the seismic fractal character.So the value of CSI is a comprehensive parameter and is used to draw evolution pattern of the earthquake activity and to plot unit time curves.They better reveal the preceding character of seismicity.It is proved by many earthquakes occurred in China that the value of CSI has an increasing process before strong earthquake.This is approximately identical with the theoretical result.The region and time interval of future earthquake can be estimated.

关 键 词：地震预报 算法研究 临界现象 自组织 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]