中国异常增暖来年江淮流域易发生大洪水  

The Chinese abnormal warming is important predictive sign of occurring torrential of rain and heavy floods in the yangtze river valley or the huai river bison in next summer

作　　者：陈菊英[1] 程华琼[1] 王威[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院国家重点实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《地球物理学进展》2007年第4期1380-1385,共6页Progress in Geophysics

摘　　要：在1987年以来全球气温明显增高的同时,中国气温也显著增高,1997年达到了峰值,2006年又出现了次峰值.为搞清异常增暖对中国旱涝等灾害的发生可能带来的影响,本文重点统计分析了中国年平均气温对全球年平均气温的响应关系,并分析研究了1951~2006年期间中国月年平均气温的年际变化特征和汛期主要多雨带类型及发生严重洪涝区域之间的对应关系.结果发现：（1）3个中国年平均气温异常偏高但8月气温不高的来年汛期主要多雨带和严重洪涝区域都发生在淮河流域（3/3）;（2）5个年平均气温偏高且8月气温也明显偏高的来年汛期长江流域发生了大洪水和严重洪涝（5/5）,特别是其中2个8月气温特高的来年（1954、1998年）汛期长江流域发生了特大洪水和严重洪涝（2/2）.对这个前兆强信号的发现和揭示,不但证明了全球和中国异常增暖对来年中国汛期水旱灾害的重大影响,也对准确预测中国汛期主要多雨带分布类型和江淮流域的大洪水和特大洪水有特别重要的应用价值.With the global warming from 1987, the temperature in China also is rising and reaches a most maximum in 1997 and second maximum in 2006. In order to understand impact of global warming and Chinese abnormal warming to flood or drought of China in next year, in this paper, we mainly statistics and analyses the features of annual and monthly variability of temperature in China and the main patterns of summer （JJA） precipitation and floods/droughts during the period of 1951 to 2006. The results are： （1） In the next summers of the three years in which annual temperature is abnormally high and the temperature in August is not high in China, the mainly rainy bands and the regions of heavy floods were both in the Huai River Valley （3/3） ; （2） In the next summers of the five years in which temperature in August is abnormal high and the annual temperature in China is also above normal （partial high）, the mainly rainy bands and the mainly regions of heavy floods were both in the Yangtze River Valley （5/5）. In the two years of the five years mentioned above, which the temperature is most high in August, the mainly rainy bands and torrential rain and heavy floods were both in the Yangtze River Valley （2/2）. This strong temperature sign, discovered in this paper, reflect the important impact of temperature on main rainy bands in rainy season and regions of heavy floods in China. And it is valuable on accurate prediction of main rainy bands in China and torrential Rain and heavy floods in the Yangtze River valley, the southern area of the Yangtze River and Huai River valley in next rainy season; it is also valuable on flood control and disaster reduction.

关 键 词：全球和中国 异常增暖 前兆强信号 长江流域 淮河流域 特大暴雨洪水 

分 类 号：P45[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]