管道最大腐蚀坑深的极值统计方法及软件研制  

Statistics of Extreme Value to Analyse the Maximum Depth of Corrosion Pit and Software Development

作　　者：罗文华[1] 周祥[1] 吴岚[2] 刘阳[3] 税琦敏[3] 

机构地区：[1]西南油气田公司长输管道检测评价中心 [2]西南油气田公司输气管理处 [3]西南油气田公司信息中心

出　　处：《油气储运》2007年第8期34-38,共5页Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation

基　　金：西南油气田公司输气管理处2005年科研项目(项目编号20050401-06)部分研究成果

摘　　要：四川输气管道的腐蚀坑深分布符合Gumbel第一类概率分布规律,利用计算机进行数据处理,计算出管道可能存在的最大蚀坑深度。研制出的"最大腐蚀坑深预测软件",消除了用概率纸作图的弊端,所得数值具有唯一性,可信度高。以四川某输气管道的开挖检测数据为例,利用"最大腐蚀坑深预测软件"计算出可能存在的最大蚀坑,并将预测结果同该输气管道的漏磁检测数据及修补时的验证结果进行了对比。The article concludes that the distribution rule of corrosion pit on Sichuan gas pipelines conforms to Gumbel first kind of probability distribution rule. Authors calculate the maximum depth of corrosion pit possibly existed by means of computer when mapping Gumbel probability on drawings in calculating maximum depth of corrosion pit. The shortcomings of mapping the probability drawing are fundamentally solved by 'the maximum depth of corrosion pit prognostication software (MDCpp-Software)', and the value obtained is unique and confidence level is high. Taking the inspection data from bell hole in some of Sichuan gas transmission pipelines for example, a predication is made with MDCpp-Software on possibly existed maximum depth of corrosion pit,and a comparison of predication results is carried out to LMF data including verified results from pipeline repairing. Comparison results show that the field inspection method combined with the statistics method is rational and scientific, which can provide a reliable basis for assessing the residual strength of corroded pipes.

关 键 词：管道 腐蚀坑深 极值统计 预测 应用软件 

分 类 号：TE973[石油与天然气工程—石油机械设备]