塔克拉玛干沙漠公路交通事故趋势预测分析  

Prediction Analysis on the Trend of Traffic Accidents on Taklimakan Desert Highway

作　　者：马晓松[1] 艾力.斯木吐拉[1] 李鑫[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆农业大学机械交通学院,乌鲁木齐830052

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2007年第6期29-36,共8页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(50422286)

摘　　要：应用塔克拉玛干沙漠干线公路建成通车以来的交通事故统计数据,在分析交通事故主要指标发展变化特征和分布特征的基础上,建立了适用于沙漠公路交通事故特点的GM(1,1)预测模型,对未来几年内交通事故发展趋势进行了预测。预测结果表明,未来几年沙漠公路交通事故次数、死亡人数、受伤人数以及直接经济损失等4项指数将分别以15.9%,10%,4.5%和5%的年平均增长率快速增长。同时针对预测结果提出了相应的对策。By using the statistic data of the traffic accidents on Taklimakan desert arterial highway since it was open to traffic and based on the analysis of changing and distributing characteristics of the traffic accidents indexes, a predicting Grey Model （ 1, 1 ） with Gray Theories is built, which is applicable to predict the developing tendency of the traffic accidents on desert highway in the future several years. The result shows that the tithes of traffic accidents, death toll, number of injuries and directly economic loss will respectively increase by an average annual growth rate 15.9%, 10%, 4.5% and 5% on desert highway in the future. According to the forecast, some countermeasures to improve the traffic safety on desert highway are put forward.

关 键 词：交通工程 交通事故 灰色预测 对策分析 沙漠公路 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]