近年我国地震预测预报进展及其减灾效益  

DEVELOPMENTS IN EARTHQUAKE PREDICTIONS AND FORECASTS AND DISASTER REDUCTION EFFECTS IN CHINA

作　　者：李宣瑚[1] 李志雄[1] 张国民[2] 丁鉴海[2] 

机构地区：[1]国家地震局,北京100036 [2]国家地震局分析预报中心,北京100036

出　　处：《国际地震动态》1997年第5期4-8,共5页Recent Developments in World Seismology

摘　　要：文章简要从五个方面介绍了我国近年来,尤其是1995～1996年地震预报取得的进展:地震高潮形势把握正确;年度中期预报水平两年保持40%的高水平;孟连7.3级及巴塘5.5级两次中强以上地震短临预报成功;多次6级以上地震之后趋势判断迅速、正确,应急措施取得实效;国际之间震情应急处置的成功范例等。这些进展大大鼓舞了我国科技人员沿着中国独自的研究思路深入探索地震预报的信心,同时对国际地震预报科学的发展也将作出积极的贡献。This paper gives a brief descripsion of the progress made in earthquake forecasts during the recent years,especially from 1995 to 1996,including the following five aspects:accurately seizing the situa- tion of seismic high tide;successively keeping the high level of 40% in the year by medium-term fore- east in two years;successfully forecasting two above-moderate earthquakes:the Menglian M 7.3 earthquake and the Batang M 5.5 earthquake in short-impending predictin;prompt,accurate tendency judgement,practical results obtained in emergency measures after many earthquakes of M 6;success- ful examples for emergency countermeasures of international earthquake situation.These progress greatly inspire the confidenc that the Chinese scientific and technical personnel deeply probe earth- quake prediction along purely Chinese line of research thinking,and at the same time will make posi- tive contributions to the development of earthquake prediction science ~

关 键 词：地震预报 震后趋势判断 减灾效益 地震灾害 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学] P315.9[天文地球—固体地球物理学]