突发事件下何时启动应急预案  

When to Activate Contingency Plans within Disruptive Incidents

作　　者：于辉[1] 陈剑[2] 

机构地区：[1]重庆大学经济与工商管理学院,重庆400030 [2]清华大学经济管理学院,北京100084

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2007年第8期27-32,共6页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(705010157032100170401006)

摘　　要：研究管理者面对突发事件应该何时启动应急预案的问题.在完全没有突发事件持续时间信息的条件下,利用局内决策理论与方法构建了单个企业启动应急预案的方案,并用利用"竞争比"说明该方案的有效性;在此基础上,进一步研究了两个企业启动应急预案的问题,指出分散决策会造成企业启动预案时间的扭曲,并建议了援助机制来协调企业在突发事件下的启动预案行为.Contingency plans are the important and efficient methods for the manager of the nation and corporations when they are in disruptive incidents. The paper explores the problem that when the managers activate contingency plans under the disruptions. In the absence of duration of information about unexpected events, we constucte the plan to activate contingency plans for the program using decision theory and methods, and use the ＂competitive ratio＂ to explain the effectiveness of the program; On this basis, further, we study the two enterprises activate contingency plans issues, point out the time-distortion phenomena of the activation of the plan under decentralized decision-making, and propose assistance mechanism to coordinate enterprise＇ s act in the event of sudden activation of the plan.

关 键 词：应急预案 启动方案 协调问题 突发事件应急管理 局内决策 

分 类 号：F406.7[经济管理—产业经济]