2010年上海世博会园区客流交通需求预测  

Traffic Forecast for Visitiors in World Expo 2010 Shanghai Arena

作　　者：尹瑞[1] 李克平[1] 俞洁[1] 

机构地区：[1]同济大学交通工程实验研究中心,上海200092

出　　处：《同济大学学报（自然科学版）》2007年第8期1053-1058,共6页Journal of Tongji University:Natural Science

摘　　要：根据预测的世博会园区客流特点,建立宏观交通仿真软件VISUM客流需求预测模型.鉴于世博会园内交通与城市交通的不同,向VISUM模型中输入数据之前有必要对数据预先处理.基于交通需求预测的多样性和反馈性的特点,建立了展馆容量限制的出行生成模型和方式划分出行时间矩阵预处理模型.另外,采用交通GIS软件TransCAD标定出行分布和方式划分模型的参数,介绍了VISUM和TransCAD结合使用的方法.According to the predicted traffic features, a forcasting model of visitors demand for travel is constructed for World Expo 2010 Shanghai China by means of the VISUM traffic macro-simulation software. Due to the difference between Expo arena and urban traffic, a disposal of the collected data is a need before their being input into the VISUM. A trip generation model subjected to the arena＇s capacity and a trip time OD matric pretreatment model for model split are established on the basis of the traffic varieties and feedback features. Furthermore, based on the TransCAD traffic macro-simulation software, parameters of the the traffic distribution and mode split model are obtained. At last, this paper introduces the combined usage of the VISUM and TransCAD.

关 键 词：世博会 客流预测 VISUM软件 TRANSCAD软件 出行生成模型 矩阵数据预处理 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]