强增温区及其形态变化对台风转向的指示作用  

Indicative action of abnormal area of temperature increase and its pattern change on typhoon swerve

作　　者：张行才[1] 王建新 

机构地区：[1]浙江师范大学卫星遥感研究中心,浙江金华321004 [2]金华市气象局,浙江金华321000

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2007年第4期77-81,共5页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：浙江省科技计划重点项目(2005C23070)

摘　　要：根据美国国家环境预测中心(NCEP)的温度资料,以近年来在我国华东登陆或近海转向的台风为例,对台风中心附近的异常增温与未来的移动方向进行了诊断分析。结果发现:中、高层台风中心附近的异常增温对台风未来的移动趋势有着很好的指示作用,尤其是对台风移动方向的突然改变具有预报意义,强增温区及脊(轴)线方向预示着台风未来的移动方向。由此得出了一个台风路径预报的新途径。NCEP reanalysis data were used in this paper to diagnose the direction shift of typhoon that landfalled on the East China or moved off - shore in recent years as the examples. The authors used the temperature information of the NCEP data to analyze the relationship between the abnormal temperature increase around the typhoon center and the direction shift of the typhoon in future. The result shows that the abnormal temperature increase near the center of typhoon at high and middle layers can well indicate the typhoon＇s movement tendency in future, especially predict the sudden chang of the typhoon＇s direction. Thc stronger temperature increase area and the orientation of ridge （axis） line indicate the movement direction of the typhoon in future. Thus a new way of prediction of typhoon tracks is given.

关 键 词：台风 异常增温 台风路径 转向 

分 类 号：P444[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]