河北省棉花生产波动实证研究  

The Empirical Research of Fluctuation in Cotton Production in Hebei Province

作　　者：张润清[1] 马腾[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北农业大学经济贸易学院,河北保定071001

出　　处：《河北农业科学》2007年第3期109-111,共3页Journal of Hebei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(06BJY079)

摘　　要：运用图示法、趋势分解法和最小二乘法的方法,从植棉技术水平和棉农植棉意愿2方面,对1990～2006年河北省棉花生产波动状况进行了实证分析研究。结果表明:河北省棉花生产的波动性很强,在不考虑其他因素情况下,棉农的植棉意愿是影响棉花生产波动的主要因素。提出了稳定发展棉花生产的政策建议。By using graphic method, time-trend method and least-square method, an empirical research on the fluctuation in cotton production in Hebei since 1990 in two aspects of planting technology and inclination were taken. The results showed that the cotton production has been fluctuating frequently and the inclination of planting cotton is the primary factor influencing cotton production in the condition of ignoring other factors. In the end, some suggestions are brought forward, such as increasing technology inputs, strengthening technology popularization, keeping a stable market and reducing costs, implementing effective subsidies and so on.

关 键 词：河北省 棉花生产 波动 实证研究 

分 类 号：S562[农业科学—作物学]