中强地震前地震活动的长程关联及预测效果  

Long-Range Association of Seismic Activities Prior to Great or Moderate Earthquakes and Their Predicting Effects

作　　者：李亚荣[1] 荣代潞[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局兰州地震研究所,甘肃兰州730000

出　　处：《甘肃科学学报》2007年第3期66-70,共5页Journal of Gansu Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(40574026);地震科学基金(D07042)资助;兰州地震研究所论著编号:LC20070003

摘　　要：将孕震系统看作是一个自组织临界系统,中强地震发生前在一定区域内的地震具有长程关联的特征,可以用地震空间相关长度增长来表示.在2003年10月25日甘肃山丹-民乐6.1级地震前,研究了甘肃及邻区几个区域的空间相关长度增长的现象,得到了3个地震危险区.按照发震危险性的大小它们是:门源地区、天祝-古浪地区和天水地区,山丹-民乐6.1级地震发生在地震危险性最大的地区,即门源地区.表明地震空间相关长度分析对中强地震的发震地点的预测是一种有效的方法.Earthquake preparation system can be looked upon as a self-organized critical system. The earthquakes in a certain area have a characteristic feature of long-range association before th occurrence of great or moderate earthquake and it can be expressed by using seismic spatially correlated length. Prior to the Shandan-Minle earthquake （M= 6.1） which occurred on Oct. 25, 2003 we analyzed the phenomena of growing seismic spatial correlation in several areas of Gansu and its nearby areas and obtained three seismic risk regions. According to the order of the risky extend they are Menyuan, Tianzhu-Gulang and Tianshui areas. The Shandan-Minle earthquake occurred in the most risky area, i. e, , Menyuan area. It shows that analyzing the seismic spatial correlation is an effective method to predict the occurring place of great or moderate earthquakes.

关 键 词：孕震系统 长程关联 相关长度 山丹-民乐6.1级地震 

分 类 号：P315.5[天文地球—地震学] P315.6[天文地球—固体地球物理学]