基于董事会治理因素的财务危机预警模型的构建  

Early-Warning Model for Financial Distress of Corporations Controlled by Board of Directors

作　　者：曹德芳[1] 赵希男[1] 王宇星[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北大学工商管理学院,辽宁沈阳110004

出　　处：《东北大学学报（自然科学版）》2007年第9期1350-1353,共4页Journal of Northeastern University(Natural Science)

基　　金：辽宁省科技基金资助项目(20061012)

摘　　要：企业在经营过程中存在着越来越多的财务风险,为了防止这些风险演变为财务危机,及时进行财务危机预警分析,就需要理顺公司的治理结构,引入董事会治理因素来完善财务危机预警机制.以120家上市公司为研究对象,分别运用非参数检验、T检验以及主成分分析对财务变量和董事会治理变量进行筛选,进而运用Logistic回归分析构建预警模型.结果显示,未引入董事会治理变量的模型的预测正确率为92.5%,而引入董事会治理变量的模型预测正确率为94.15%,预警能力明显增强,也说明,董事会治理因素是影响公司财务危机的一个重要方面.Corporations are facing more and nowadays. To prevent the risks from turning more financial risks in their business operations them into a financial distress and warn early the corporations through an analysis of financial distress, it is necessary to smooth their control/ management mechanism by introducing the board of directors as a predominant factor to perfect the early warning system for financial distress. 120 listed companies are therefore taken as instances to screen out their financial variables and board control variables by use of non-parameter test, T-test and principal component analysis. Then, two early-warning models of financial distress are developed by Logistic regression analysis. The results show that the rate of correctness of the model taking no account of the board control variable is 92.5 %, while that of the model taking account of the control variable is 94115%, i.e., the early-warning accuracy of the latter is obviously higher. The results reveal that the board of directors is a predominant influencing factor on the financial distress of a corporation.

关 键 词：财务危机 财务危机预警 董事会治理 主成分分析 非参数检验 

分 类 号：F406.72[经济管理—产业经济]