GRM(1,n)模型在天然气水合物生成预测中的应用  

Application of GRM (1,n) Model in Forecasting Natural Gas Hydrate Formation

作　　者：文涛[1] 刘建仪[1] 周昊[2] 

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学 [2]江苏工业学院油气储运重点实验室

出　　处：《天然气技术》2007年第4期41-43,共3页NATURAL GAS TECHNOLOGY

基　　金：中国石油天然气集团公司创新基金项目<天然气水合物相态行为及动力学研究>(04E7047);中石化重点攻关项目<高含硫天然气水合物生成和防治技术研究>;中石油吉林油田分公司重点攻关项目<高含CO2酸性气体管线设备防冰堵研究>

摘　　要：针对天然气水合物生成预测中存在的"部分信息已知,部分信息未知"的"小样本"、"贫信息"难题,提出了一种基于灰色系统理论的预测方法,建立了天然气水合物预测矩阵,并以新疆牙哈凝析气、华北油田凝析气以及东海平湖凝析气的试验数据作为预测样本,采用GRM(1,n)模型对平湖凝析气样的水合物生成温度进行了预测,并与实验实测数据和文献[4]中采用的神经网络预测结果比较,证明该方法具有较好的预测效果。To solve the problems such as 'some information were known,some information were unknown' those existing in forecasting natural gas hydrate creating,a forecasting techniques based on gray system theory was developed,and the matrix used to show data of forecasting natural gas hydrate creating was developed.Taking the condensate gas test data of YAHA oil field and HUABEI oil field as well as PINGHU oil field as the stylebook of forecasting,adopting GRM(1,n)to forecast the hydrate creating temperature of PINGHU condensate gas,comparing the forecasting data with measured data and forecasting data by neural network forecasting method in literature 4,the comparing result showed GRM(1,n)forecasting method can get better forecasting result than other method.

关 键 词：天然气 水合物 灰色理论 模型 预测 

分 类 号：P618.13[天文地球—矿床学]