考虑决策者风险态度的有害物品运输风险度量模型  

A Risk Model for Hazardous Materials Transportation Based on the Decision-makers' Attitudes to Risk

作　　者：郭晓林[1] 李军[1] 贺盛瑜[2] 潘立亚[2] 

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学经济管理学院,四川成都610031 [2]成都信息工程学院电子商务系,四川成都610225

出　　处：《系统工程》2007年第6期31-34,共4页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70471039);教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划资助项目(NCET04-0886)

摘　　要：路径风险度量是进行有害物品运输路径选择的基础。在有关有害物品运输文献中,已经提出了多种风险度量模型,但均没有考虑到决策者具有不同的风险态度以及不同的风险态度对路径风险评价结果的影响。针对这一情形,本文建立了决策者风险等效曲线,并通过风险等效曲线将不同时期的风险换算成同一时期的风险值,以此计算出总的路径风险,将其作为路径选择的依据。The selection of the hazmat transportation route is based on the risk evaluation of the route. There are many risk models in the hazardous materials transportation literature, but in which, no one has considered that the decision makers＇ risk attitudes are different and how the different attitudes works on the risk evaluation of the routes. Aiming at this disadvantage, this paper establishes the Risk-indifference-curve, and hy which, changes the risk values on every period into the risk values on the same period, finally the total changed risk values serves for the route selection.

关 键 词：有害物品运输 路径选择 风险态度 风险度量 风险等效曲线 

分 类 号：U294[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]