黄淮海平原气候变化及其对耕地生产潜力的影响  

Climate Change and Its Impacts on the Agricultural Productivity Potential on the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain

作　　者：姜群鸥[1] 邓祥征[2] 战金艳[3] 刘兴权[1] 唐华秀[4] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学地学与环境工程学院,湖南长沙410083 [2]中国科学院农业政策研究中心 [3]北京师范大学环境学院,北京100875 [4]南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《地理与地理信息科学》2007年第5期82-85,共4页Geography and Geo-Information Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70503025);中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-YW-305-2;KSCX2-YW-N-039)

摘　　要：利用1991年和2000年黄淮海平原气象台站的历史观测资料,分析该地区气温、降水的变化趋势,并利用农业生态地带(AEZ)模型估算黄淮海平原各农业生态区的耕地生产潜力。通过分析气温、降水与耕地生产潜力的关系,评价气候变化对耕地生产潜力的影响。研究发现,黄淮海平原耕地生产潜力与降水量、气温呈显著正相关。对各农业生态区的回归分析表明,如果气温或降水量提高10%,耕地生产潜力将分别提高3.2%与0.3%。该研究对制订应对气候变化、保护耕地与提高耕地生产潜力方面的决策具有参考价值。This paper analyzes the impacts of climates on agricultural productivity potential of Huang-Huai-Hai plain using AEZ model. The temporal and spatial patterns of climatic changes on the Huang-Hual-Hal plain are explored. And then based on the multi-layers of information including climatic changes, cultivated land uses, soil fertility, terrain conditions and etc. , the agricultural productivity potential is estimated and the changing characteristics of cultivated land are analyzed. And lastly, the analysis shows that there is positive and linear relationship between air temperature and agricultural productivity potential, as well as rainfall and agricultural productivity potential. If the temperature or rainfall increases 10%, the agricultural productivity potential increases 3. 2% or 0. 3% respectively. The results provide valuable information to formulate the decisions in mitigating the impacts from climatic changes, protecting the loss of cultivated land and realizing the regional agricultural development.

关 键 词：农业生态地带模型 气候变化 耕地生产潜力 黄淮海平原 

分 类 号：S162.5[农业科学—农业气象学]