一类三参数混沌动力学系统模型及其在经济增长研究中的应用  

A Kind of Three Parameters Chaos Dynamic System Model and Its Application in Economics

作　　者：陈庆吉[1] 潘忠志[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北电力大学,吉林132012

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2007年第17期21-25,共5页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：十一五973计划项目(2007CB206904)

摘　　要：从非线性自回归模型Xt+1=-αXtλ+1+βXt+γ出发,通过变量替换Xt=aYt,推出三参数混沌动力学系统模型Yt+1=kYt(1-Ytλ)+c;采用线性回归与非线性回归相结合的改进的混合法,对模型参数作了估计;实际研究表明,该模型可以用于对国内生产总值GDP增长的研究.Based on autogressive model Xt＋1 =-αXt^λ＋1 ＋ βXt ＋ γ, derived the three parameters chaos dynamic system model chaos dynamic system model Yt＋1 = kYt（1 - Yt^λ） ＋ c with variable replacement Xt = αYt And designed Matlab program and drew its picture to study its behavioral feature, found the chaos dynamic course of track of inserted period one when c 〈0. Estimated the parameters with linear regression and nonlinear regression method. This model can be appliedin the research of growth of Gross Domestic Product.

关 键 词：逻辑斯蒂方程 三参数混沌动力学系统 最小二乘估计 非线性回归 

分 类 号：N941.7[自然科学总论—系统科学]