人口老龄化:进程模拟和政策机制分析  

Population Aging:Process simulation and the analysis of policy mechanism

作　　者：陈璋[1] 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学社会发展与公共政策学院,上海200433

出　　处：《西北人口》2007年第5期54-58,共5页Northwest Population Journal

摘　　要：以人口老龄化系数分析为主线,对相关统计数据从生育率、死亡率、老龄化系数、跨期队列人口四个方面进行模拟分析,推算出中国人口老龄化进程在1976年开始出现;计划生育政策是老龄化进程加速的关键因素,并导致我国步入老龄化国家行列的时间提前了12年;面对老龄化和高龄化浪潮,应当实行由国家主导、社会与家庭广泛参与的多元化的老龄化应对举措。The essay is mainly based on aging coefficient and simulates the relative statistical data at four aspects： gross fertility rate, death rate, aging coefficient and population procession, then makes a conclusion that the aging process of China appeared in 1976 and the leading factor is due to ＂family planning＂ policy which make the time ahead of 12 years when China entered into aging countries. As for the aging wave, even the senility wave, we should take multimode measures -- the government-leading and society participation to tackle the aging problem.

关 键 词：人口老龄化进程 老年人口系数 预期寿命 

分 类 号：C913.6[经济管理]