模糊概率模型及其在地下水水质评价中的应用  

Fuzzy Probability Model and Its Application to Evaluation of Groundwater Quality

作　　者：刘章军[1] 叶燎原[2] 

机构地区：[1]三峡大学土木水电学院,湖北宜昌443002 [2]云南大学公共安全与区域防灾研究中心,云南昆明650091

出　　处：《应用基础与工程科学学报》2007年第3期286-293,共8页Journal of Basic Science and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(59869002)

摘　　要：以模糊概率理论为基础,建立了一种新的模糊数学综合评判模型——模糊概率模型.在此模型中,结合层次分析法,提出了模糊权重的概念,可充分考虑权重的模糊性.模糊概率模型不仅继承了经典模糊综合评判法的思想和优点,同时也克服了其在实际应用中评价因素权重取值的局限性,因而具有明显的合理性.应用该模型对某研究区地下水水质进行了综合评价,结果表明,研究区采样点水质为Ⅱ、Ⅲ级的占95%,绝大多数地下水水质较好,符合饮用水的要求.通过与其它评价方法的比较,说明本文方法具有良好的可靠性,可广泛适用于各种综合评价问题.Based on the fuzzy probability theory, a new model of fuzzy probability comprehensive evaluation is developed. And the application procedure of the model is illuminated in detail. In order to assess index weighted value scientifically, the analytic hierarchy process （AHP） is introduced into the fuzzy weighted values to avoid the uncertainties while determining the index weights. In this way, the fuzzy probability model not only holds the merit of classical fuzzy comprehensive eval model is applied to uation method, but also overcomes its limitations in practice. At last, the evaluate groundwater quality of a well field in northern China and the results are compared with those from a different approach. It is shown that 95% of the water samples in the well field can be rated either level Ⅱ or Ⅲ according to the water quality standard. Most of the groundwater samples are of good quality and fit the quality standard of potable water. The proposed method is proved to be reasonable and reliable, and can be widely used in all kinds of comprehensive evaluation problems.

关 键 词：模糊概率 层次分析法 地下水 水质评价 模糊权重 

分 类 号：X824[环境科学与工程—环境工程] O159[理学—数学]