应用正态概率模型预测油田含水率变化规律  

Using Normal Probability Model to Forecast Performance of Water Cut in Waterflood Oilfield

作　　者：沈楠[1] 杜军社[2] 王国先[2] 富玉芳[2] 邹民[2] 乔跃华[3] 蔡军[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所,北京100029 [2]中国石油新疆油田分公司准东采油厂勘探开发研究所,新疆阜康831511 [3]中国石油新疆油田分公司彩南油田作业区,新疆阜康831511

出　　处：《新疆石油地质》2007年第5期609-611,共3页Xinjiang Petroleum Geology

摘　　要：应用正态概率模型可以方便地确定水驱动态变化、描述水驱特征参数,这就使得预测油田含水率、采收率、评价开发措施变得比较简便而实用。油田开发实践表明,当油田进入中含水期后,不论是S型、凸型,还是凹型水驱特征曲线都可以应用正态概率模型进行预测。Using normal probability model is more simple and efficient to determine performance and eharacteristic parameter of waterflood oilfield, so it is feasible and practicable to forecast water cut and oil recovery of wateffood oilfield and evaluate its development measures. The comparison and application show that the normal probability model can be applied to forecasting the performance of water cut when the oilfield enters into medium water cut stage for either S-type, convex-type or concave-type curves.

关 键 词：含水率 采出程度 预测 正态概率 模型 

分 类 号：TE331[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]