准噶尔盆地油气储量、产量增长趋势预测  

Forecast of Hydrocarbon Reserves and Production Growth Trend in Junggar Basin

作　　者：董蔚凯[1] 靳涛[1] 王屿涛[1] 曹伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油新疆油田分公司勘探开发研究院,新疆克拉玛依834000

出　　处：《新疆石油地质》2007年第5期622-624,共3页Xinjiang Petroleum Geology

摘　　要：通过国内外某些盆地油气储量和产量不同勘探阶段变化趋势、增长规律及其与资源探明程度之间相关性,分析了新疆准噶尔盆地油田50年来储量、产量的增长规律和变化趋势后,采用了对非再生性矿产资源的"翁氏旋回"确定生命旋回法以及HCZ模型和Weibull模型,预测百年油气储量、产量的增长趋势,得出准噶尔盆地油气储量和油气生产处于上升阶段,符合本油田自身的发展规律的基本结论。The varied trends, growth regulation of hydrocarbon reserves and productions as well as ＂their degrees of proven resources in different stages of exploration in some basins at home and abroad are presented, based on which the reserves, production growth regulation and varied trend of Xinjiang oilfields for over 50 years are analyzed, and the predictions of them in Junggar basin in coming one hundred years are made by Weng＇s method that determines cycle of life of the nonrenewable mineral resources and selected HCZ model and Weibull model. It is concluded that the hydrocarbon reserves and productivity of Junggar basin are at the ascending stage, which coincides with the development patterns of the oilfield.

关 键 词：准噶尔盆地 石油 天然气 储量 产量 预测 

分 类 号：TE313.8[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]