基于蒙特卡罗模拟的风险评标法探讨  

A Probe on the Bid Risk Evaluation Based on Monte Carlo Simulation

作　　者：由英来[1] 王权民 

机构地区：[1]厦门理工学院建筑工程系,福建厦门361024 [2]厦门市建设工程造价管理站,福建厦门361012

出　　处：《厦门理工学院学报》2007年第3期27-31,共5页Journal of Xiamen University of Technology

基　　金：厦门市科技局科技计划项目(3502Z20055036)

摘　　要：在使用经评审的最低价中标法进行评标时,注重商务标和技术标的评价,对标书的风险评价不足.为了有效规避风险,减少损失,提出风险评标法.首先,根据各标书的风险金数额和投标报价决定风险评价指标;其次,评标委员会用蒙特卡罗模拟法计算标书风险指标;最后,评标委员会结合商务标、技术标和风险评价指标综合决定标书的排名.In using Lowest Price Proposal Selected to appraise a bid, commercial bids and technical bids are emphasized, while the probability of risk of the proposal is not been adequately appraised. The Bid Risk Evaluation is therefore suggested to avoid risk and to decrease loss effectively. The owner determines the risk appraising index according to amount of guarantee of low price risk and quoted price of tender. Then, the bid evaluating committee calculate the risk appraising index of the bid using Monte Carlo simulation and decide the ranks of all bids.

关 键 词：经评审最低价中标法 蒙特卡罗模拟 风险评标法 评标 

分 类 号：F284[经济管理—国民经济]