GM组合模型用于城市生活用水量预测  

Prediction of urban domestic water demand by GM integrated model

作　　者：王涛[1] 张宏伟[1] 牛志广[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津大学环境科学与工程学院,天津300072

出　　处：《水资源保护》2007年第5期28-30,共3页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：教育部博士点基金(20050056016);天津市科技发展计划项目(033113811)

摘　　要：以天津市为例,采用GM组合模型预测城市生活用水量,力求提高预测的精度。首先,通过对往年城市用水特点的分析,运用多元逐步回归的方法和等维灰数递补动态模型对天津市城市生活用水量进行预测,预测的平均误差分别为7.59%和11.55%;然后,采用上述两种模型的GM组合模型对天津市城市生活用水量进行预测,预测的平均误差降低为5.06%。实践证明,GM组合模型适用于城市生活用水量的预测,精度令人满意。Taking Tianjin for example,urban domestic water demand was predicted by GM integrated model so as to improve prediction accuracy.Firstly,according to analysis of the characteristics of urban water usage in recent years,multiple stepwise regression method and the same dimensional gray recurrent dynamic model were applied to the prediction of urban domestic water demand in Tianjin City,and the average errors of the methods were 7.59% and 11.55% respectively.Then GM integrated model of the above two models was used and the error came down to 5.06%.It was proved that GM model was suitable for prediction of urban domestic water demand and the precision was satisfying.

关 键 词：城市生活用水量 GM组合模型 多元逐步回归模型 预测方法 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]