有限记忆静态灰色冰雪融水径流预报模型及其应用  

The Limited Memory Static Grey Ice-Snow Melting Runoff Forecasting Model and Its Application

作　　者：马成军 李智录[2] 李抗彬[2] 

机构地区：[1]宁夏水利水电勘测设计院,宁夏银川750004 [2]西安理工大学水利水电学院,陕西西安710048

出　　处：《西安理工大学学报》2007年第3期314-317,共4页Journal of Xi'an University of Technology

摘　　要：根据塔什库尔干河流域的径流资料及喀什探空站的气温资料,采用有限记忆静态灰色模型建立了该流域的冰雪融水径流预测模型。通过灰色关联度分析对各预报因子进行筛选、建模预测,将该模型与GM(1,1)模型进行了比较。结果表明,该模型能够较好地模拟预测塔什库尔干河流域的冰雪融水径流过程,具有实际的应用价值。According to Tashikuergan river drainage area runoff data and Kashi sounding station temperature data, the limited memory static grey model is used to establish the runoff forecasting model of ice-snow melting in this paper. When establishing the model, using the grey cognate degree analysis method screens the important forecast factor of each item, and then establishing the model is forecasted. The calculated results indicate that the limited memory static grey model is able to simulate and forecast the drainage area runoff process of ice-snow melting better, and the model is of actual application value.

关 键 词：有限记忆 灰色模型 关联分析 冰雪融水 

分 类 号：TV697[水利工程—水利水电工程]