天然气配气管网定量风险分析  

Quantitative Risk Assessment for Natural Gas Distribution Networks

作　　者：杨林娟[1] 沈士明[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京工业大学机械与动力工程学院

出　　处：《压力容器》2007年第9期29-34,共6页Pressure Vessel Technology

摘　　要：天然气作为一种清洁环保的能源,需求量越来越大。提高天然气管网运行的安全性是一个至关重要而且必须解决的问题。风险评价技术是一种有效的安全评价模式,已成功地应用于油气管道的安全性评价。本文采用管道失效的历史数据分析与专家评价相结合的方法,计算天然气管道的失效率,并考虑穿孔和破裂两种失效形式所产生的后果,对天然气管道的风险进行了定量评价,并针对铸铁管进行了详细的案例分析。Natural gas is a clean energy source with increasing demand in the worldwide. The safety management to natural gas distribution systems is very important. Risk assessment is successfully used to evaluate safety of oil and gas pipeline. This paper proposes the assessment of probability of failure of natural gas distribution networks based on the integration of historical data and knowledge of company experts, and the risk of natural gas distribution networks was quantitatively evaluated with according to failure modes of leak and rupture for pipeline.

关 键 词：定量风险分析 天然气 配气管网 铸铁管 

分 类 号：TQ053.6[化学工程] O211.67[理学—概率论与数理统计]