家用汽车需求预测  

Prediction of Demand of Private Car

作　　者：许辉[1] 赵韩[1] 梁平[1] 

机构地区：[1]合肥工业大学机械与汽车工程学院

出　　处：《中大管理研究》2007年第3期61-69,共9页China Management Studies

摘　　要：本文首先用定性预测方法分析了家用汽车需求的主要影响因素,论证了其平稳增长的特性。然后用定量预测方法,在灰色系统模型等单一预测模型的基础上,引入了组合预测模型,通过使组合预测误差平方和最小,得到了各个单一预测方法的权重系数,建立了最优组合预测模型。对预测结果进行对比分析,验证了最优组合预测方法的准确性。最后运用所建立的最优组合预测模型对家用汽车在最近几年的需求量进行了预测。Firstly, the qualitative prediction methods is used to analyze the major influence factors of the demand of private car, proved that the character of grow is smooth .Then, the quantitative prediction methods is used, based on the grey system and other single forecasting model, a combined forecasting model is presented, the optimal weight coefficients are determined by minimizing the sum of squared errors, then, the combined forecasting model is established. According to analyzed the forecasting result, The model is validated the veracity. Finally, the demand of private car in following years is predicted by using the combined forecasting model.

关 键 词：需求预测 组合预测方法 灰色系统理论 

分 类 号：F407.471[经济管理—产业经济] F224