河西地区融雪径流的灰色预测方法  

Grey Prediction Method on Snowmelt Runoff in the Hexi Area

作　　者：蓝永超[1] 曾群柱[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院兰州冰川冻土研究所

出　　处：《冰川冻土》1997年第2期154-160,共7页Journal of Glaciology and Geocryology

摘　　要：通过对河西地区主要河流３～６月径流特征的研究，建立了以灰色系统理论为依据的ＧＭ（１，１）和ＧＭ（０，Ｎ）两种预测模式，分别应用于祁连山河西地区融雪径流的中长期预测，为基层生产部门的用水决策提供科学依据。The Hexi area is an important place of grain production The peroid from March to June when snowmelt runoff occupys a great proportion in stream flow is a high time of irrigation in this area In this paper, two forecast models on the base of GM(0, N ) and GM(1, 1) are presented and they are used for the mid and long- range forecast on snowmelt runoff, which may provide an scientific basis for making rational use of water resources The two forecast models are very accurate in the practical application

关 键 词：融雪 径流 灰色预测 河流 

分 类 号：P343.1[天文地球—水文科学]