修如新模型中备件量的计算及其置信上限的Fiducial推断  

The Computation of the Spare Parts Number for Repair as New Model and the Fiducial Inference of It's Upper Confidence Limit

作　　者：杨军[1] 于丹[2] 赵宇[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京航空航天大学工程系统工程系,北京100083 [2]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京100080

出　　处：《应用概率统计》2007年第3期225-230,共6页Chinese Journal of Applied Probability and Statistics

基　　金：本文受到武器装备预研基金项目9140A19030106HK0108的资助.

摘　　要：本文研究了在修如新模型下,对预定贮存期为T同时开始贮存的N个系统,给出在P_0可修复率下所需备件数的计算公式;针对贮存寿命服从威布尔分布的系统,利用枢轴量,在P_0可修复率和预定贮存期为T的条件下,给出N个系统所需备件数的置信上限的定义;并基于系统寿命试验的完全样本,利用Fiducial方法得出备件数置信上限的计算方法.In this paper, based on the repair as new model, under the same storage condition, the spare parts number M for N identical systems is derived on the condition that failures are repaired with probability P0. For system which follows Weibull distribution, utilizing the pivotal quantity and Fiducial distribution, the upper confidence limit of the spare parts number M is defined; futhermore, based on the complete samples in life testing, utilizing the Fiducial method, the computation of the upper confidence limit of the spare parts number M is given in the end.

关 键 词：可用度 贮存模型 更新过程 概率母函数 Fiducial分布 

分 类 号：O212.1[理学—概率论与数理统计]