西安市房地产市场景气指标筛选研究  

On the prosperity index selection in real estate market in Xi'an

作　　者：陆宁[1] 姜丽宁[1] 俞允凯[1] 黄永安[1] 李伟红[1] 

机构地区：[1]长安大学建筑工程学院,陕西西安710061

出　　处：《长安大学学报（社会科学版）》2007年第3期57-60,共4页Journal of Chang'an University(Social Science Edition)

基　　金：陕西省自然科学基础研究计划资助项目(2005E211)

摘　　要：为准确反映西安市房地产市场的总体运行趋势和波动状况，科学构建西安市房地产市场预警指标体系，通过西安市房地产市场预警系统的建模、景气指数计算、景气状况分析、市场预警等后续研究奠定基础，依据可行性和代表性原则，初步选取影响西安市房地产市场运行中的27个指标作为原始预警指标体系，并针对每个指标选取1996-2003年的时间序列量，运用主成分分析与模糊聚类分析相结合的方法对原始指标进行筛选，选定了15个主要指标，构建了西安市房地产市场预警系统指标体系。分析表明：所确定的指标体系能够涵盖房地产市场的主要运行特性，而且能够比较全面地代表原始预警指标，建立的预警指标体系是全面而简练的。In order to accurately show the present operation tendency and market fluctuation and reconstruct an early-warning index system of real estate market in Xi＇an, this paper, through analysis of the present reconstruction of early-warning system and the prosperity situation, select 27 indices in the market as the practical and representative principles, which ranges from 1996 to 2003. Then, the principal component and the fuzzy analysis are combined to select the prosperity indices from the original system. On the basis of this selection, fifteen indices have been chosen to establish the early warning indices system of real estate market in Xi＇an. The analysis indicates that the selected system can not only contain the most operation peculiarities of the real estate market, but also completely represent the original early-warning indices, which shows that the established early-warning system is complete and concise.

关 键 词：西安市 房地产 景气指标 主成分分析 模糊聚类分析 

分 类 号：F293.30[经济管理—国民经济]