论动力相似预报的物理基础问题  

Physical Basis of Dynamical Analogue Prediction

作　　者：任宏利[1] 封国林[1] 张培群[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局国家气候中心气候研究开放实验室

出　　处：《地球科学进展》2007年第10期1027-1035,共9页Advances in Earth Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"延伸预报中减少模式不确定性的动力相似集合方法"(编号:40675039);国家重点基础研究发展计划项目"北方干旱化与人类适应"第三课题"北方干旱化进程中的阶段性转折和突变及其可预测性研究"(编号:2006CB400503);国家自然科学基金项目"跨季度预报的相似-动力方法研究"(编号:40575036);国家科技支撑计划项目"灾害天气精细数值预报系统及短期气候集合预测研究"第四课题"短期气候集合预测技术"(编号:2006BAC02B04)共同资助

摘　　要：为了更好地发展动力相似预报的策略和方法,基于非线性动力学成果,综合探讨了动力相似预报的物理基础问题。分析表明,"相似预报—低频流型—可预报性"在物理上存在密切联系,这在统计相似预报和动力相似预报问题中均适用。通过类比集合预报,并对实际大气不同尺度模式预报的个例分析,初步证实了相似初值对应的动力预报结果及其预报误差行为具有相似性。在此基础上,进一步提出三类相似性问题,并归纳了动力相似预报的物理基础:在初始状态相似性持续的情况下,动力预报结果以及预报误差行为具有相似性。In order to further develop the strategy and methodology of Dynamical Analogue Prediction（DAP）,the physical basis problem associated with the DAP is primarily investigated in the present study based on previous nonlinear dynamical achievements.Firstly,the relationship of ＂analogue prediction-low-frequency flow regimes―predictability＂ is fully discussed.Analyses show that such a relationship is not only suitable for statistical analogue prediction,but also for dynamical analogue prediction.Furthermore,by contrasting with initial ensemble forecast and conducting case analyses of dynamical predictions on different time scales in real atmosphere,it is primarily documented that there exists evident analogy between dynamical prediction results and their situations of prediction errors when initial values are analogical to each other.Moreover,three classes of analogy problems are further summarized and the physical basis of dynamical analogue prediction is induced： Under the circumstance that the analogy at initial states is durative,not only dynamical prediction results but also their situations of prediction errors will be analogical to each other.

关 键 词：动力相似预报 可预报性 低频流型 三类相似性问题 物理基础 

分 类 号：P433[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]