21世纪中国极端降水事件预估  

Projection of Precipitation Extremes for the 21st Century over China

作　　者：江志红[1] 丁裕国[1] 陈威霖[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学,江苏省气象灾害重点实验室,南京210044

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2007年第4期202-207,共6页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40675043);江苏省气象灾害重点实验室基金项目(KLME050209)资助

摘　　要：全球变暖背景下极端降水事件的变化一直受到广泛关注,本文从观测、理论及模拟预估等方面对近十多年来国内外极端降水气候事件的研究作一综述,并给出IPCC第四次评估报告对我国21世纪极端降水指数变化的预估结果。Projections of change in precipitation extremes under global warming have drawn much attention abroad. In this paper, recent progresses in studies on precipitation extremes at home and abroad are summarized through the various aspects of observation, theory, simulations and projections. The projected changes in precipitation extremes derived from the five GCMs contributing to the 1PCC AR4 over China in the 21st century are also discussed.

关 键 词：极端降水事件 模式模拟 极值分布 预估 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]