甘肃油菜产量时空特征及其对气候变暖的响应  

Spatial-temporal characteristics and response of rape output in Gansu area to climate change

作　　者：王毅荣[1] 张旭东 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局兰州干旱气象研究所甘肃省干旱气候变化与减灾重点实验室,甘肃兰州730020 [2]兰州区域气候中心,甘肃兰州730020

出　　处：《干旱地区农业研究》2007年第5期220-225,共6页Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas

基　　金：科技部社会公益研究专项(2004DIB5J192)

摘　　要：利用1981～2000年20a甘肃省64县区油菜产量和生长期（4～10月）气温资料，主要采用REOF和小波分析等方法，分析油菜产量的地区差异和受气候变暖的影响。结果表明：甘肃油菜产量存在4个特征区，即河西走廊高产不稳定区，河西东部及陇东地区和陇中产量不稳定区，甘南高原等甘肃南部边缘低产稳定区。产量变化以2～4a左右的年际振荡为主，5a周期大多对应极值产量。气温异常偏高（低）相应的河西走廊产量异常偏欺（丰），甘南等甘肃南部边缘地区产量随气温的升高（降低）而升高（降低），这些地区油菜产量对气候变暖响应显著；甘肃黄土高原地区对气候变暖响应不太明显。By applying REOF and wavelets analysis, the data of rape output and the temperature in its growth period （April--October） in 64 counties of Gansu Province in 20 years from 1981-2000 was used to analyze the spatial-temporal characteristic of the rape output. The result showed that the rape output had different developing characteristics in 4 areas and had obvious difference in change. For example, the Hexi corridor region was rape＇s unstable prolific zone where the rape output amplitude was the biggest, while the plateau in south part of Gansu was a stable low production area. By using wavelet analyses, the 2-year--4-year period stood out, 5-year-period corresponded top （bottom） rape output. The rape output was sensitive to climate warming in the Hexi corridor region and south part of Gansu, but not so sensitive in Gansu plateau.

关 键 词：油菜产量 时空特征 气候变暖 响应 甘肃省 

分 类 号：S565.4[农业科学—作物学] S162.54