气候模拟数据的订正与应用——以北京为例  

Revision and Use of Simulated Climate Data——A case study for Beijing

作　　者：郑祚芳[1] 张秀丽 曹鸿兴[1] 谢庄[1] 徐影[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象局北京城市气象研究所,北京100089 [2]空军气象中心,北京100843 [3]中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2007年第5期299-302,共4页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(40505020);科技部公益类项目(2003DIA6N017);北京自然科学基金项目(8042012)资助

摘　　要：为了消除气候模拟数据中气候平均值和气候变率的漂移,发展了一种新的数据订正方案。应用该方案对IPCC提供的B2情景下北京未来100a气候预估值进行了订正试验,证实了方案的可用性。在此基础上分析了北京未来气候变化特征,结果表明:21世纪北京气温将继续上升,升温速率约为0.31℃/10a,最低、最高气温的非对称变化仍将持续;未来北京年降水量呈微弱下降趋势,下降速率约为1.03mm/10a。A new method for revising simulated climate data, which can remove both shifts of climate mean and variability, was developed in this work. The method can adjust the simulated value to the observed one. An attempt of applying the simulations under the B2 scenario in the IPCC data bank was made, which took the future 100 years projection of Beijing as a case, and the utility of the revision method was proved. By analyzing feature of Beijing＇s climate change in the future, it is shown that the temperature would still rise in the 21 st century, its change rate would be about 0.31 ℃/10 a, the non-symmetrical characteristics of minimummaximum temperature would continue. The precipitation has a weak decrease trend with the rate of 1.03 mm/10 a.

关 键 词：气候变化 气候平均值 气候变率 漂移 数据订正 预估 北京 

分 类 号：P468.0[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]