黑龙江省“十一五”工业资金需求预测  

Industry financing demand forecast of the eleventh five-year plan in Heilongjiang province

作　　者：孙伟[1] 魏光兴[2] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工业大学管理科学与工程博士后流动站,哈尔滨150001 [2]重庆交通大学管理学院,重庆400074

出　　处：《哈尔滨工业大学学报》2007年第8期1301-1304,共4页Journal of Harbin Institute of Technology

基　　金：黑龙江省科技厅软科学重点攻关课题(GB04D102);黑龙江省博士后科研基金资助项目

摘　　要：为研究黑龙江省＂十一五＂工业资金需求水平,运用柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,以1990～2003年的工业经济状况为基本数据,包括工业增加值、工业就业人数和工业投资总额,建立预测模型.在对2006～2010年的工业增加值估算、对工业就业人数进行灰色预测基础上,预测2006～2010年工业投资总额.结果表明：预测模型的R2为0.992,F值为657.775,D.W值为1.717,预测模型合理.技术进步对经济增长的贡献率为76.35%.黑龙江省＂十一五＂工业投资额年均为515.9亿元,远超过2003年的183.2亿元.The industry financing demand of the eleventh five - year plan in Heilongjiang province is analyzed. By Cobb - Douglous production function and based on the industrial economy data of 1990 - 2003, including industrial added value, industrial employment quantity and total industrial investment, the forecast models are set up. Based on the estimation of the industrial added value of 2006 - 2010 and gray model forecasting of industrial employment quantity, the authors forecast the total investment of 2006 - 2010. R^2 of the forecast model is 0. 992, F value is 657. 775 and D. W value is 1. 717, so the forecast model is rational. Average total industrial investment of the eleventh five - year plan in Heilongjiang province is 51.59 billions Yuan per year, far more than the 18.32 billions Yuan in 2003. The industrial financing demand of the eleventh five -year plan in Heilongjiang province is enormous.

关 键 词：资金需求 预测 灰色模型 

分 类 号：F424.6[经济管理—产业经济] N941.5[自然科学总论—系统科学]