利用插值法建立历史旱涝格点资料的可行性  

Feasibility on Establishing Girding Dataset of the Drought and Flood by Interpolation

作　　者：尉英华[1] 郭品文[1] 刘洪滨[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学大气科学系,江苏南京210044 [2]中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京100081

出　　处：《气象与减灾研究》2007年第3期1-6,共6页Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research

基　　金：中意环保合作项目(编号:SWIMER-任务8);中国气象局2006年度气候变化专项(编号:CCSF2006-11-1)

摘　　要：主要利用《中国近五百年旱涝分布图集》等历史文献旱涝等级资料,采用气候学分析中常用的插值方法,建立中国东部地区(106°—122°E、25°—41°N)历史时期旱涝等级格点场资料,试图从大尺度的时空变化上,分析比较插值前后资料的结构和特征方面的异同,以说明采用格点资料对中国东部地区进行古气候分析的可行性。采用普通Kriging插值法,对1470—2000年中国东部地区旱涝等级资料进行空间插值。通过交叉验证,分析了站点实际值与估算值间的平均绝对误差,说明采用Kriging插值法将站点旱涝等级资料网格化是可行的;在获取插值结果后,采用数理统计分析方法,比较了插值前站点资料与插值后网格点资料的要素场时空特征,其时间变化趋势的一致性及空间分布的无漂移,进一步说明采用该插值方法是可行的。On the basis of the historical documentary data of the drought and flood grades from Yearly Charts of Drought and Flood in China for Last 500-Year Period, the girding dataset of drought and flood grades over the eastern China [106°-122°E, 25°-41°N] has been obtained by the interpolation, which is commonly used in climatological analysis. From the view of large scale temporal and spatial variation, we compare the structures and characteristics between the data of stations and the dataset of grids to analyze the feasibility of the historical climate analysis using girding dataset. By the Kriging interpolation, the data of 1470-2000 over the eastern China is obtained to analyze the mean absolute error and it is proven that it is feasible to get girding data by Kriging interpolation. The spatio-temporal characteristics of the weather element fields are also compared by mathematical statistics between the data of stations and the girding dataset, which indicates further that the interpolation method is feasible.

关 键 词：历史气候 代用资料 Kriging插值法 格点资料 

分 类 号：P426.622[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P468.024