出口对中国经济增长的贡献率分析  

Contribution Analysis of Exports to China's Economic Growth

作　　者：祝坤福[1] 唐志鹏[1] 裴建锁[1] 陈锡康[1] 杨翠红[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院

出　　处：《管理评论》2007年第9期42-45,41,共5页Management Review

基　　金：香港前特首董建华先生资助项目;香港中文大学资助项目;国家自然科学基金委资助项目(60474063)

摘　　要：对外贸易对中国经济快速发展起着极为重要的作用。目前,出口对经济增长的贡献已成为学术界争论的焦点问题之一。对此,有两种不同的做法:一种是将总的出口作为一个变量直接来测算它对经济增长的贡献,而这种做法对中国经济而言并未真实反映其实质;另一种是根据中国具体情况将出口分为加工出口、非加工出口及其他以及总的出口来分别测算其对中国经济的贡献。本文通过编制我国2002年的非竞争(进口)型投入产出表计算和分析了加工出口、非加工出口及其他以及总的出口对GDP和就业的影响效应,并从部门产品层面分析了出口的拉动作用。我们发现虽然对外贸易给我国带来了利益,但由于缺乏核心竞争力,尤其在加工出口方面这种利益是非常有限的。Foreign trade has played a very important role in China's rapid economic growth. Currently, contribution of export to economic growth has become one of the focuses of academic circles. To this issue, there are usually two different treatments: one is to consider total exports as a whole to estimate its contribution to economic growth. This treatment to the Chinese economy, however, does not reflect the characteristics of China's export structure; the other one is, according to China's export situation, to estimate the effect of exports generated respectively by processing exports, non-processing exports, and total exports. In this paper we construct a non-competitive input-output model that captures China's processing trade and estimate the domestic value-added and employment generated by processing exports, non-processing exports, and total exports, respectively. The results show that although China does benefit from exports, due to scarcity of key competitiveness, China can only get very limited gains especially from processing exports.

关 键 词：非竞争(进口)型投入产出表 加工出口 非加工出口 增加值 就业 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易] F224[经济管理—产业经济]